System Performance - 2 views of the same picture

I am a bit slow this month!
The first chart shows monthly performance based on open equity, whilst the second chart shows quarterly performance of closed trades.

Both charts show 2 views of the same portfolio. The closed trades chart (although the yellow bars of the chart include any open trades in mid December) is similar to the charts that TradeSim generates. The chart only looks at closed trades. It ignores the daily gyrations of the portfolio and only looks at profits made when the stock was sold.

So the top chart shows how much was given back before profits were taken, whilst the bottom chart totals profits made on closed trades. It's hard to imagine that the charts show the same portfolio and that the data was taken from the same source.

I am really only concerned with the closed trades profits. Note that the bottom chart shows quarters whilst the top chart is in a monthly time frame. I prefer quarterly (or yearly) charts, since I am looking long term performance.

stevo

A minor selling spree

Not quite a selling spree, but 4 sell signals in one week kept me busy on Monday.

The best trade was OMH above.

I also did ok on MGX, and lost a little on SSM and AVX. I would be around 50% cash. Fortunately the winners thrashed the losers this time. OMH was nice.

With a little bit of luck I won't have to do much whilst travelling (all the more likely with a weekly system), although I will have internet access in most locations I am staying.

stevo

Just taking it easy

I am getting a bit of sailing in of late. It's not much of a photo but there was a bit of swell around and the wind was good enough to fly a hull on some flat water once I ditched the other guys (they were hungry) at Patonga.

Systems are off at the moment. I did't get any sells so, trading wise, there isn't much to do. If work doesn't want me for a while (people keep wanting to have meetings) I will get in some sailing. I will be all December in Europe - my preference would be to stay in Sydney on a beach somewhere.

stevo

Yilgarn Mining exit

YML is a trade I exited this week. This one is outside the All Ords stocks, something that I do from time to time if there is enough turnover.

This one could easily move 10% in a week, and sometimes more than this in a day. For those that think they could trade it short term best of luck! I was in it for 9 weeks.

stevo

A couple of good months

The green bars show monthly portfolio changes. The red line, with Y axis on the right hand side, shows cumulative gains. All costs (inlcuding quarterly tax payments) are taken into account, as well as dividends. The results are adjusted for capital additions and withdrawals.

Not a lot to say really - things are ticking along ok. The market has been incredibly strong, with the odd wobble to remind us that it can't last forever. My preference is to look at closed profits only, but I only sold one stock for a small loss in October - BTA (see chart below. A portfolio may rise substantially and then give some back. I look at closed profits on a quarterly basis.

If a portfolio goes up 30% and then settles back to a 20% gain on closed profits have we lost 10% or gained 20%? If a portfolio goes up 20% and we exit there is no 10% loss and we are "happier" Open profits are not money in the bank. It is a never ending process.

stevo

Yearly % profit charts in Amibroker

This is something for system testers.

There is a really nice bit of code at the AmiBroker Knowledge Base



The chart above was produced in Amibroker. The Knowldege Base explains a bit about it.

Anyone that has been reading this blog might realise that I was successful at the auction I went to a couple of weeks ago - see the weekender picture below.

stevo

Somewhere north of Sydney

The beach is just down the path.

stevo

Long term focus and another exit

I exited BTA last week. I thought it might have some promise but it just drifted slowly down till it lightly touched the exit point.

Since my sell off a couple of months ago I have been buying through September. There has been a lot of life in the market, especially resource stocks. The strength of some stocks has surprised me - YML, MGX, OMH hold some promise. My very limited research tells me that they are all involved in iron ore in WA. I also picked up MIS in the super fund - yet another iron ore company.

I am definitely overweight in materials and energy stocks at the moment. What happened in the market just a couple of months ago is a distant memory.

stevo

Sydney Ferries

There are some things in life best avoided.

Smooth sailing?

This is not my boat!

I took the picture though. We had the mainsail reefed and huge westerly gusts (40 knots plus) made for an exciting test run in a friend's new yacht. It was pretty hot (29) and the helicopters were pulling water out of the river trying to put out the fires raging through Kuringai Chase National Park. Hanse yachts are made in East Germany somewhere.

I find such big boats a little overwhelming, my meagre sailing skills have all been in something that weighed less than 500kg (and often less than 100kg) not 18000kg. I think I will be sticking to my Hobiecat, more fun for way less cash.... and then there is the issue of not wanting to tie up good trading capital in a depreciating asset.

I am always drawn to water - surfing, swimming and sailing. Sailing is the area that I have the least experience.

September was a real turnaround month on the markets. The portfolio plunge for August was partially recovered in a very strong market. I guess that the one lesson that I learnt (again) was to not count open profits as in my own pocket.

Mrs Stevo found a little weekender on a beach somewhere north of Sydney. I guess at least land, especially waterfront land, tends to hold it's value. I will see how I go at auction - they are a bit like trading aren't they?

stevo