I trade longer term mechanical trading systems exclusively on the ASX. I rarely look at daily charts and the systems are built using weekly timeframes. The information in this site is based on actual trades in real portfolios. I don't trade using margin or any sort of leverage. I mainly use Amibroker for system testing and trade monitoring. I am not selling anything. This is just a journal to record where I have been and, just maybe, where I am going.
Monday, October 16, 2006
Indicators
I am not a great fan of lots of indicators or the way that they are often used. The QGC chart above (one of my current trades) shows the following indicators;
1. Price,
2. a momentum indicator in the top window,
3. Volume in the bottom window,
4. Trailing stop - red line.
5. Index trend - red / green ribbon in the chart.
Price, which is an important indicator, tells us how much was paid for a stock in the past. Momentum, for me, is a strength indicator - how fast is the stock moving? Volume obviously tells us how much interest there is in a stock and the trailing stop tells me when to get out.
These indicators can all be combined to give a mechanical signal to buy and sell stock. Price is useful, but so is momentum, volume and the trailing stop. They all work together to produce a system. I could not trade by the price plot alone.
I don't use overbought / oversold indicators and I don't look for divergences - too subjective. If it's not going up it's not going up and divergences aren't going to convince me otherwise. I am not interested in knowing that a stock might change direction!
SO looking at the QGC chart above what got me into the trade before the takeover was announced? Volume, price and momentum are both heading up together.
Stevo
Friday, October 13, 2006
Average trade length and performance
I have been reporting results quarterly but the average hold time is in excess of 6 months, with winners often exceeding 1 year. So reporting quarterly results is quite lumpy. The chart below is a yearly chart which shows quite consistent performance.
This portfolio was fortunate enough to hold QGC (currently subject to a hostile takeover from Santos) and results since the last quarter (sept 2006) have jumped nicely. This portfolio currently has over $80,000 profit in open trades.
Stevo
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
3rd Quarter 2006
The systems are ticking along nicely. There was a small realised loss for the quarter. The last bar consists of open profits in the portfolio carried forward to the 4th quarter.
I am still trading with around $400,000 capital - the capital base moves around a bit. Cost price of the portfolio was $338,542 and the market value at the end of the quarter was 393,591. I have a bit of cash on hand for some forthcoming house expenses.
The chart shows only capital gains and does not include dividends.
Stevo
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)