Revised Yearly results

 Below I posted early 2006 results. I revised the charts above give a better picture. The last bar shows carried forward open trades. Even though 2006 could be considered down on previous years in terms of realised profits the open profits carried forward into 2007 gives a better idea of how good 2006 was. Profit factor is still over 3 at 3.34, including open trades.

Over the last year there has been quite a distinct accumulation / distribution pattern of profit taking. So the 2nd quarter of 2006 realised substantial profits. Profits have been building through the 2nd half of 2006. 

Don't ask me for % profits over the year. I added substantial capital late this year.

Let's see what 2007 brings.

Time Frames

Time frame can be quite misleading - the chart above could easily be daily.

The chart above shows signals from a system I have been working on. I have stated I am a longer term trader - the chart shows monthly bars. What is surprising is that, as long as I can get in/out around the open of the following month, the system drawdown is quite low. If I use a random entry / exit price (as opposed to the open price) in the following month drawdown increases, but the results are still good enough to encourage me to make some trades using a monthly timeframe.

The system does use stochastics, as well as index filters, volume and a momentum indictator. Above 50 on the stochastic sets up a buy, below 50 triggers a sell. Stochastics, combined with RSI in a monthly timeframe can work quite well, although I am not using RSI in this system. But not in the traditional sense.

The bar colours are set by the stochastic to show the trend.

Stevo

Early 2006 performance

2006 was a good year, although I am jumping the gun a little since it is not quite over. 

Open and closed profits realised over $260,000, plus some dividends and bank interest. 
However $170,000 is in unrealised profits and will be carried forward into next year.

Realised profits were down over previous years, but nothing of concern considering the level of open profits moving into next year. A good year could easily be one where there are no realised profits because no sell signals are given and open profits are growing.

I made a slight loss in the last quarter, but adding an extra $800,000 to the portfolio is doing reasonably well, aided by the excellent market conditions.

Wishing all a merry Christmas and a happy New Year.
Stevo 

Bollinger bands

The chart above shows a nice bollinger band breakout on a weekly ERG chart. I am not in this trade and this is not an active system. I find this a more fruitful aproach than the traditional OB/ OS strategy commonly touted in trading books. I use this strategy to trigger buys in systems I trade. Combined with volume, momentum and a suitable exit it works quite well.

To quote from the Bollinger site;
"Price can, and does, walk up the upper Bollinger Band and down the lower Bollinger Band."

"Closes outside the Bollinger Bands can be continuation signals, not reversal signals--as is demonstrated by the use of Bollinger Bands in some very successful volatility-breakout systems."


Stevo