I trade longer term mechanical trading systems exclusively on the ASX. I rarely look at daily charts and the systems are built using weekly timeframes. The information in this site is based on actual trades in real portfolios. I don't trade using margin or any sort of leverage. I mainly use Amibroker for system testing and trade monitoring. I am not selling anything. This is just a journal to record where I have been and, just maybe, where I am going.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Small Ords performance
On the 14 March 2003 the Australian Small Ords Index closed at 1388.1 and then the market started it's upward run to peak at 4098.1 on the 2nd Novemember 2008, not far off tripling in value.
Then the index proceeded to give back most of the gains in a little over a year. There was plenty of warning. The drop was not as fast as in 1987.
The Small Ords only has to give up another 195 points and it's back at where it was at in 2003. The Small ords is down 61% from it's peak a year ago, whilst the All Ords is around 50% down.
I have been looking at fundamentals lately. I am tempted to push some super money into some high yielding "blue chips". So far I have resisted the urge, dimly aware of my poor ability to pick winners through fundamental analysis. For me the numbers don't give the full picture.
stevo
Note: The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries index is comprised of companies included in the S&P/ASX 300 index, but not in the S&P/ASX 100 index. It ignores the top 100 stocks and gives a view of the smaller cap stocks on the Australian market. It is a favourite index of mine.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
System state
From the interpretation window in Amibroker.
STATE - Last 26 weeks
--------------------------------
SystemOff = 22 Weeks
SystemOn = 4 Weeks
So the system has only turned on 4 weeks in the last 26. The Small Ords is down 59% from it's peak.
I still haven't updated the blog in terms of system performance. With so little happening I haven't been in any rush - hey it's my blog and I'll blog if I want to. Maybe I will wait until January.
stevo
STATE - Last 26 weeks
--------------------------------
SystemOff = 22 Weeks
SystemOn = 4 Weeks
So the system has only turned on 4 weeks in the last 26. The Small Ords is down 59% from it's peak.
I still haven't updated the blog in terms of system performance. With so little happening I haven't been in any rush - hey it's my blog and I'll blog if I want to. Maybe I will wait until January.
stevo
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)