Monday, August 22, 2005

Random entries and exits

The hypothesis is that entry criteria is irrelevant - that you could just buy at random and get just as good a result as an entry criteria that looks for some pattern.

I did some testing and found quite the opposite. Compound annual return for stocks using random entry and random exits are plotted below;



The results show that the random exit system outperformed the random entry system with the MA stop in terms of compound annual return. A random exit is really like a variable timed stop.

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