The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

I picked the best (the good) and worst (the bad) percentage losers for the week. The Ugly is the peak to trough drawdown that I will suffer, probably around 12% once the dust settles. Such is trading. As ASX.G (or more correctly Peter Bernstein in Against the Gods) mentions "the disutility caused by a loss will always exceed the positive utility provided by a gain of equal size."

Tell me about it!

It was nice to sell into a rising market on Monday, always with the thought in the back of the mind that maybe I am selling at the very bottom of the recent market action. Such is trading.

stevo

Stevo's Luxury yatch

Maybe I exagerate just a little.

I had a lot of fun on some Hobiecats off the little beach we are staying at in the Whitsunday's. Then I took out the smallest boat in the fleet with the biggest sail - not a good match! The photo does not do the 15 to 20 knot gusty conditions justice. I had some great runs, but not in this craft - it had a tendancy to tip over just when things were getting interesting.

stevo

Sailing & green turtles

I'm not talking about the markets either.

You will notice in this picture that I am not actually on the craft! I few green turtles moved very rapidly when they saw me coming.

The Markets - business as usual.

One of the indices that I use in my trading systems is the Small Ords. The top red line is a one week Rate of Change line.

Drops greater than 3% in a week have occured every year for the last 3 years. Prior to 2005 we had a dream run from 2002 to 2005 without any one week dropping more than 3%. Even 2002 (not a good year) did not have a week with a 3% drop. Before 2002 3% drops were fairly common.

So, to put the recent market weakness in perspective, it's business as usual for the markets. I can't see any black swans yet!

We have had it so good since 2003 so it's nice to see how our systems perform when the markets turn south.

stevo

JBH - goodbye

Another exit earlier this week. The system above was one I developed for slower moving stocks like QBE and WOW.

I was hoping that the market would stay reasonably calm this week since I am heading for a tropical island for a week - work related of course. It looks like I will have to place some sell orders next week after the DOW dropped 387 points last night.

stevo

Monthly Performance

Percentage gains - a slight lift on the last day of the month helped a little, as did some quite volatile stocks that are ignoring the current market conditions, such as DYE, CSM & MRX.

I include all expenses and income. I also adjust for all changes to capital - withdrawals and capital additions. I don't go back further because I only got my cashbook under control last financial year, although dollar value gains are reported for previous years in previous posts.

stevo
Note that although I mention some stocks above my systems would not be buying them now. I have had an individual buy a stock that I mentioned and then blame me when he lost money! We are all responsible for our own actions and decisions.