Wednesday, March 19, 2008

March quarter, systems and competition

I thought I would look at how my portfolio was performing in preparation for the end of another quarter. I plotted my closed trade equity curve and discovered that the equity curve hadn't done much at all since I last posted one below.

I couldn't see any difference because there has only been 2 closed trades since the last posting at the end of January and the gains and losses have been so small that they had little impact on equity.



I have mainly been trading one system for the last 5 years, although I have tried to introduce new ones at times. I keep coming back to a system that I am comfortable with, although in testing it may not be as profitable as some others. A few others trade my favourite system and to reduce competition against them I developed yet another system, currently called 50%, although I will change the name soon. I basically took my favourite system and stripped it of the bells and whistles.

Competition in the market against others probably isn't that big a problem. For starters there is some discretion in stock selection and this has resulted in quite a bit of variation in portfolio makeup. This has resulted in my brother being up around 15% (including open trades) for the current financial year, whilst I am struggling to get 5%. He has IPL and CEY in his portfolio from October last year, whereas I don't.

I will keep my favourite system for my super fund and make the new 50% system the system of preference for the portfolio reported here. I tested both systems combined and weighted trades towards the new system. So the 50% system has priority and, if any money is left, it goes to "old faithful". I am finding that I will make more if I trade a little more, although the ride will be bumpier.

Since I nearly went to cash it's like starting up the portfolio again. System startup is always a difficult time.

Happy trading,

stevo

3 comments:

Nizar said...

Stevo,

I think thats why its important to include monte carlo analysis in the backtesting process of each system before you trade it.

So you know roughly what degree of variation can be expected.

And I've gotta say, IPL is an absolute champion. Its had an incredible run. It actually triggered for me late last year at 90-something. I was like WHAT $90 NO WAY. LOL. Haha.

Nizar.

stevo said...

Good to see you picked up the IPL trade. I like to see all the alternative histories that Monte Carlo simulations throw up.

stevo

Anonymous said...

Hi mate,

I couldn't find an email address, but just letting you know that I have started a new blog that you may be interested in: http://www.marketmusings.com.au/

I have linked to your blog on a post here: http://www.marketmusings.com.au/?post=291

You can also get further information about myself and what I aim to achieve with the blog here: http://www.marketmusings.com.au/?post=287

Cheers,
Chris