Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Michael Covel trend following videos



I have a lot of time for this guy's approach as outlined in this and a couple of other videos on youtube. I believe that he has written books but I haven't read them.

When it comes to data the only data that I can really trust and understand is the close price and the volume. Fundamental data cannot be trusted in the same way. It can be fiddled or made to look better than it really is. I am not an accountant, although I am not totally ignorant to their methods. But I know my limitations when it comes to understanding a company and it's fundamentals.

If I was buying a company on fundamentals I would want to kick the tyres, talk to key staff, and delve into basic industry characteristics. I would want to independently value assets and look at the past financial records. I would want to understand anything that might impact on the company going forward. Then I could, with the aid of industry experts that would need to be working for me, make a decision on the value of a business.

But with listed companies I can't easily do this without substantial resources.

Using trading systems I can bypass most or all of the fundamental information. A publicly listed company is valued everyday by the "market".

Trend following, combined with exit strategies and position sizing, relies on price and volume data.

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