Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Trading Results - January 2003 to June 2008

The following charts show actual trading results for my portfolio from January 2003 up to now. This is over 5 years worth of trading on the Australian Stock Exchange using weekly trading systems, long only trades.

The quarterly closed trades histogram shows periods of little activity, with long term trades easily going 3 or more quarters. The last bar shows Q3 2008 and consists of all open trades.

Whilst Q2, 3, & 4 of 2007 show lots of profit taking in Q1 & 2 of 2008 I gave some of those profits back. The systems buy signals turned off for nearly 5 months from November to March so I also managed to accumulate some interest in the bank account.


The equity curve shows the drawdown for the first 2 quarters, as well as the open profits going forward. It actually looks worse than it felt, since the open trades offset the closed trade drawdown over the 6 month period. I am not going to try plotting daily or weekly open equity curves which would show a different picture again.

A year ago there was a much different mix of stocks in the portfolio. The current portfolio consists of roughly 61% Energy sector, 34% Materials, 4% Utilities, and 0.38% David Jones (Mrs Stevo likes the shareholder discount card!). The one stock (EWC) in the Utilities sector holds power stations somewhere in Asia - I know now because I just looked! It's hanging on by a thread and could easily be an exit shortly.

I am surprised by the strength of the coal miners. I have MCC in another portfolio and it's well past the magic (in my mind anyway) 100% gains mark in less than a year. Unfortunately I didn't put it in this portfolio, although coal stocks do feature. Iron ore minors also feature prominantly and something called New Hope Corporation (Great name - I think it's a coal miner) looks promising on the chart.

stevo

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